JICA experts forecast the demand for railway transport on the north-south run would rise by three times in 2030, so improving the existing single-track railway is not enough to meet such demand. Moreover, with the current track widths of one meter and 1.067 meters, it is impossible to raise the train speed to 200 km/h.

To improve the north-south railway, it will cost an amount equivalent to that needed to build a new rail line, says a report in Sai Gon Tiep Thi.

JICA proposed schemes to increase the capacity of the single-track railway in the period 2020-2025 and to "double track” a number of sections with heavy traffic.

In particular, the north-south railway will be upgraded from now to 2020. The train speed will remain unchanged at 90 km per hour, but the travel time will be cut from 28 hours to 25.4 hours and the number of trips will be increased from 32 to 50 trips a day.

The total investment cost of this scheme is about US$1.8 billion.

As for the busy rail sections, double-track lines will be constructed to achieve a maximum speed of 120 km/h, shortening the Hanoi-HCMC journey to 15.6 hours. This development scheme will cost some US$14.5 billion.

Furthermore, JICA researchers underscored the need to develop high-speed rail lines, with certain routes for test running as soon as possible. Specifically, JICA recommended two express rail lines being Ngoc Hoi-Phu Ly, stretching 40 kilometers, and Thu Thiem-Long Thanh, some 30 kilometers, to start trial run in 2018.

Regarding the scheme to develop two high-speed rail lines Hanoi-Vinh, 280 kilometers long, and HCMC-Nha Trang, 360 kilometers, JICA said these two routes would be economically viable in 2030 with an economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of 12%. The total investment cost of the two lines is around US$21.4 billion, equal to some 6.3% of Vietnam’s GDP in 2030.