According to the statistics announced on June 24 by Ministry of Planning and Investment, the GDP growth in the first half of this year reached 3.9% and the economic statistics of Q2 have not been publicised yet.

The growth of industry and service announced for 40% of GDP, reaching 4.3% in Q2 compared with 1.5% of the previous quarter. Particularly, the turnover from services contributed up to 40% of Q2 GDP and also surged 5.9% year on year.

The foreign group Nomura assessed that Vietnam’s monetary and fiscal policies have well supported to the economy while the interest rate subsidisation policies played a key role in pushing up the development of credit. "Basing on Q2 GDP statistics, we predict that the country’s GDP growth could be 4.9% in 2009 and 6.4% in 2010 against the group’s previously predicted figure of 6%", Nomura’s analysts said.

The June CPI only rose by 3.9%, lower 5.6% of May 2009 because food prices increased by 3.4% last month against May’s 6.5%. Nomura in its report said, CPI will continue declining in Q3 of 2009.

Concerning the fiscal policies, the government submitted the 2009 budgetary plan to National Assembly with the budgetary overspending of 8% of GDP, much higher than the initially offered 4.8%. However, National Assembly set the overspending ceiling level at 7% of GDP allowing the government to expand the expenditure by 0.6% of GDP compared with the initial plan.

Meanwhile, the interest rate subsidisation programme is taking effects but some borrowers took bank loans to invest in stock and real estate markets. State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) said they are making big efforts to control subsidised loans, yet the inefficient usage of soft loans will lead to the unexpected economic risks for the future.