It has been forecast that for the remaining months of 2009, Viet Nam’s GDP growth may reach 5.9-6.8 per cent; the figure for the whole year would then be 5-5.5 per cent. Do you think this forecast is feasible?

In the framework for developing the country’s socio-economic plan for 2010, the Ministry of Planning and Investment’s forecast for the remaining months of this year is positive. It is stated that the country’s economy has declined but not fallen into a crisis.

In my opinion, if we are able to enhance the positive factors and maintain the existing recovery tempo of the economy, while continuing to implement the Government’s measures to prevent economic downturn, the target of 5-5.5 per cent growth rate for 2009 is feasible.

There are different factors that support my argument. For example, the balance of the economy is under the control, and investors’ confidence in the positive signals of our economy is increasing.

Some world economies have also started to recover.

However, there remains many hidden risks and potential dangers ahead of us in the medium term.

Many economists have forecast that the world’s economy would remain at the bottom for sometime and cannot recover that quickly.

In such a situation, we need to follow the world situation closely and not to be so optimistic about the recovery of our economy.

The first Government’s stimulus plan is about to end soon. There are different opinions and assessments about its effectiveness. What are your thoughts on this?

To stabilise the economy, to generate more jobs for the people and to solve social issues, the Government decided to launch the first stimulus package.

The stimulus package contains several elements, but the most striking one is to reduce the credit interest rate for enterprises.

By now I can say the plan is a success; it has helped many enterprises avoid going bankrupt and allowed millions of workers to retain their jobs.

The stimulus package can be described as "life saving" in the way that drugs can be for an acute disease. However, taking strong medicine for an "illness" always leaves an undesirable side effect.

Many enterprises which have taken advantage of the plan have refinanced their bank loans. As a result, many bad debts have been settled by new debts. It is too early to tell whether these debts will turn into bad debts again, because the loans have not yet matured.

The level of bad debt in Viet Nam now stands at 5 per cent – this means it is currently under control.

It is important that the banks should follow the situation closely and come up with innovative measures to handle to the problem, if it should occur.

About two months ago, the second stimulus plan was introduced with similar interest subsidies for longer-term loans. Do you think that the interest subsidy should be reviewed?

The second stimulus package will last until the end of 2011. Its nature is much different from the previous one. These loans can last up to three years.

The longer-term credit will enable the enterprises to adjust or restructure their business plans to make them more efficient and more competitive.

With that concept, the key objective of the second stimulus plan is to encourage the enterprises to expand their production. In my opinion, the 4 per cent interest rate subsidy should gradually be slashed. But in order to do that we need to have a road map to create a level playing field for all businesses.

Healthy competition is a good driving force for enterprises to develop their production for their own survival and for development.

The State Bank of Viet Nam’s decision to reduce the credit growth down to 25-27 per cent in 2009, along with other intervention measures to curb the inflation rate, is the correct and necessary decision.

Another issue we need to consider is the quality of the credit.

If credit is reserved for projects that would have quick returns, generate more jobs for people and contribute to the country’s economy, it is high-quality credit.

We should avoid the practice of using short-term deposits to lend out for long-term credit many banks are using now. This poses a high risk to the banking sector.