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Growth scenarios for Vietnam
Date: 5/15/2020 9:16:27 AM
It can be seen that under the scenario of Vietnam economy, the ability to achieve the GDP growth target of 6.8% and some socio-economic targets set in 2020 is a great challenge.


Processing cashew nuts for export /// Photo: Chi Nhan
Processing cashew nuts for export
In a report to the Standing Committee of the National Assembly on the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic , the National Assembly’s Economic Commission emphasized that although Vietnam has basically managed to control diseases in the community, the economic scenarios given must be linked to the ability of countries around the world to prevent diseases .
Some international organizations have lowered Vietnam’s economic growth forecast due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic: IMF reduced its growth forecast from 7% to 2.7%; WB lowered its forecast from 6.5% to 4.9%; ADB lowered its forecast to 4.8%. Although still high compared to other countries in the world (for example, the UK Central Bank forecasts that the country’s economy will drop by 14% this year, the highest decline in recorded history). , but still lacking hundreds of trillion dongs, millions of jobs ...
Domestically, the Government has not set a specific scenario for economic growth in 2020 as well as the implementation of other socio-economic targets due to the impact of the Covid -19 pandemic However, some agencies and organizations also have forecasts about Vietnam’s GDP in 2020.
The Ministry of Planning and Investment has proposed two scenarios for the economy based on the Covid-19 epidemic projections that will last until the end of the second quarter and the end of the third quarter of 2020 with the forecast that GDP growth will decline accordingly. 5.3% and about 5%. The Central Economic Committee also forecasted under three scenarios (optimistic, neutral, pessimistic), with Vietnam’s GDP forecast respectively about 5.25% - 3.9% and 2.9%.
According to the National Assembly’s Economic Committee, it can be seen that the Vietnamese economy, regardless of the scenario, is capable of achieving the GDP growth target of 6.8% and a number of socio-economic targets set out in 2020 is a great challenge. However, the belief in the economic recovery after the epidemic is under control is also very clear. Vietnam can stop the economic recession thanks to its ability to control epidemic diseases on a large scale; timely stimulating policies, flexible adjustment of monetary and tariff policies; the economy’s resilience to shocks is relatively good with low debt levels, foreign exchange reserves are strengthened.
Although many countries have implemented unprecedented economic and financial measures, they will only mitigate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, but not the crisis. cause. This crisis was solved only by medical measures, repelling epidemics, finding treatment vaccines. However, the Covid-19 pandemic with a complex and unpredictable nature always had the risk of an outbreak again.
The National Assembly’s Economic Committee said that the most important task of Vietnam today is still to control the disease, along with adapting to keep growth in the short term and continue to change models, re structure to ensure long-term growth.
At this time, it is not without positive signs for Vietnam, thanks to the rising reputation in dealing with diseases and supporting partners such as the US, Japan, EU, South Korea ... The number of ideas about shifting the supply chain to Vietnam instead of China , establishing the "Prosperous Economic Network" in the presence of Vietnam ... was raised by world leaders, though is just an idea, but it can still open up new opportunities.
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