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The 10-fold flood risk in Ho Chi Minh City could cause US $ 8.4 billion in property damage by 2050
Date: 5/23/2020 8:12:01 AM

 The 10-fold flood risk in Ho Chi Minh City could cause US $ 8.4 billion in property damage by 2050

In the worst case scenario, the sea level could rise to 1.8 meters until the end of the 21st century, 2/3 of HCMC is in danger of facing the historic flood.

Bloomberg reported: Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam’s largest metropolis, will face the risk of increasing flood disaster due to the rapid expansion of infrastructure to target economic growth, according to McKinsey Global Institute.

According to the McKinsey report on 4/4, the risk of such disasters could increase by 5 to 10 times by 2050, leading to negative economic and infrastructure impacts, which could cause billions of dollars in losses. Analysis is based on hydrological simulations, land use maps, infrastructure databases and damage curves.

The 10-fold flood risk in Ho Chi Minh City could cause US $ 8.4 billion in property damage by 2050 - Photo 1.

Ho Chi Minh City contributes about a quarter of Vietnam’s GDP. While the current urban area is still able to cope with flood risks (affecting 23% of the area), the subsequent urbanization process is increasing the risk of land subsidence and sea level rise. These could cause about $ 8.4 billion in damage to the real estate industry due to floods by 2050, six times the current estimated impact, McKinsey said.

 

In the worst case scenario, the sea level could rise to 1.8 meters by the end of the 21st century, 2/3 of the cities are in danger of facing the historic flood.

The McKinsey Global Institute writes: "Without efforts to prevent the impact of rising sea levels due to climate change, and to improve urban planning, Ho Chi Minh City will lose billions of dollars each year. Many unusual weather events can affect a large area.

Vietnam is forecast to become the 20th largest economy in the world by 2050, with an annual economic growth rate of 5.1% according to estimates by PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Despite giving the worst case scenario, the team leader told Channel News Asia that the report was not for warning, but for "providing stakeholders with an understanding of the risks and economic impacts." - the society brought by the disaster, from which an action plan for managing risk is sought.

"Ho Chi Minh City is still at an early stage of infrastructure construction. They have many options to both maintain impressive growth and reduce the impact of climate change," said Ms. Mekala Krishnan - Senior expert of McKinsey Global Institute commented.

(Source:CafeF)
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